UFC 265 Predictions - Main Card

Vicente Luque (-115) Vs Mike Chiesa $$

Both of these fighters are on impressive win streaks. There is however, a significant difference in the quality of opponent each of them have gone through to get to this point.

Luque’s resume is far more impressive than Mike Chiesa’s. Vincent has 13 wins in his last 15 bouts, but his two loses have come by the truly elite of the division. He lost a decision to Leon Edwards, who is elite in all aspects of MMA. The only fight Vicente looked truly outmatched was against Stephen Thompson, who can make anyone look bad on any given night. Luque simply was not able to find his range that fight, but did manage to inflict some damage.

This style matchup will be different however, since Chiesa is going to come right into his pocket where his technical striking skills will shine. Vicente’s short range striking is as good as anyone’s and I expect him to take full advantage of this style mismatch.

Chiesa will likely attempt to smother Luque against the fence or get the fight to the ground and control his position. If he is able to do so, he may pull out a split decision, but that may be his best case scenario. No has been able to knock Luque and I certainly do not expect that to happen here.

I expect Vicente to find a home for his jab and eventually catch Mike with a left hook sending him to his back and ultimately pounding out the KO.

Pedro Munhoz (-105) Vs Jose Aldo $

Jose Aldo has had long and impressive career and really can be considered a grandfather of the UFC. I often have concern however for these aging veterans as they continue taking massive damage late in their careers. I would have preferred to see Jose retire gracefully rather than continue at this point because it is now obvious his pursuit of regaining the title is not going to happen.

Aldo’s fight against Petr Yan, in particular was difficult to watch. Jose still looked game early in the fight throwing several good combinations. The fight however turned into a beatdown in the later rounds and I felt like the referee was slow in stoping that fight. I have a theory that fighters can only absorb a finite amount of damage over the course of a career, and Jose is fast approaching this point. Reaction times and timing do tend to deteriorate quickly in this game and you only have to look to a guy like Donald Cerrone for an example.

Pedro Munhoz is no spring chicken either as both fighters are nearing their 35 birthdays. I just don’t feel Pedro has not taken as much damage over his career as Jose and may have a few extra years left in his tank in comparison.