UFC 262

C. Oleveira (-135) Vs M Chandler $$$

Charles completely destroyed Tony Ferguson in his last fight and nearly broke his arm before he was saved by the round 1 bell. His is now the complete package and technically sound in every aspect of the fight game including standup and on the ground. His evolution ha been nothing short of astounding.

M Chandler gets a chance at the title lightweight title shot after only one previous appearance in the UFC. He was extremely impressive in his debut knocking out Dan Hooker in only 150 seconds. His hands are lightning fast and powerful and he can knock out anyone in this division on a good night. The question is will he be able to this Saturday? I am not betting on it.

His opponent is just too smart, fast, and technically sound. It seems unlikely to me that Oleveira will offer an opening big enough for the power shot to reach home. Chandler will come out aggressively putting pressure on his opponent, but I suspect it will be his downfall in this contest. If he becomes overly aggressively, his is sure to eventually end up on his back in a bad position, or a victim to a counterstrike that will leave him vulnerable to being knocked out himself. A guillotine choke seems a very real possibility as well.

I think Chandler will secure a home in the UFC but I do not think this is his time to be champion.

B. Dariush (-170) Vs T. Ferguson $$

Tony Ferguson has been a staple in the UFC Lightweight division for and had won an insane 11 fights in a row. But now he is on a two fight losing streak for the first time in his career. My concern for Tony is that at age 37 he is starting to become too stationary and is simply taking too many shots. His reaction time seems to be slowing presumably from enormous amount of damage he has absorbed over his career. Now he faces a younger and very athletic Dariush who will be looking to push the pace on him. No one will ever question the heart and chin of Tony, but I just do not see how he will be able to win a decision against his faster and more active opponent. That leaves his only realistic path to victory as KO or submitting his opponent. This doesn’t seem likely to me either as he doesn’t look as explosive as he once was.

Dariush is going to pick ‘the boogeyman’ apart in the standup and get the KO himself or take the unanimous decision as a back up plan. Beneil is on a six fight win streak himself and is looking to vault himself up into contender status in the crowded Lightweight division.

V. Araujo (+120) Vs K. Chookagian $

Viviane is a pure kick boxing striker that is coming into her prime as a fighter. She possesses an excellent jab and is a good counterstrike. She will surely be looking to find a home for her leg kick to chop down her taller opponent. I would make her a clear favourite if the fight goes the distance as I suspect it will. Chookagian didn’t look good in her fight against Andrade getting knocked out by a body blow but she did comeback to beat her next opponent Calvillo. This looks to be a close fight but I like Araujo in a decision and as the underdog.

YTD picks 6-1-1 85.7% 52.9% ROI

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Jason Grad

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