Market Report May 17th, 2021
The NBA Top Shot market continues to make all-time lows on pretty much a daily basis recently. People that bought in at the height of the bubble in February are getting completely crushed right now and are holding on desperately hoping their moments will go back to the lofty heights of just a couple months ago.
That is the bad news. The good news is this a great time to buy! Yes I said it, BUY BUY BUY. You don’t get rich buying high and selling low. You buy when it is LOW, and where is the market right now? It is LOW!
There are a few factors at play right causing the market crash. Firstly it is simple supply and demand. The Series 2 base set is more than 85% sold at this point in the cycle. That means obviously that there is only 15% of the set still left to be sold. As that number approaches 100% the supply of sellers is going to dry up and you will start to see upward pressure on prices.
The platform form has not seen a major surge in users in a while. I expect this to change soon. The playoff coverage is surely going to put more eyeballs onto the platform as many more casual viewers begin to watch the games.
Top Shot has not to this date done much advertising. This too is beginning to change as they recently did a cross promotion with Draft Kings who is a major playing now in the daily fantasy market. The two sites would appear to be perfect for each as they attract pretty much the same user base without any competition rivalries. If Top Shot can penetrate this market, it will be a major boost the user base, and overall prices.
We are still very early in the adoption cycle for this new platform. As Top Shot becomes more main stream, prices have no other place to go but up. This is the case for all new disruptive technologies and trends. The NFT memorabilia market is still in its infancy, and those who have already gotten in early are sure to benefit in the long run.
There is one more thing that I think will set a floor to the prices. Moments in the base common packs can be purchased for $9 for 3. So I think the floor for the majority of the base set should settle in the $2-$3 range on the marketplace. Why would anyone buy a new pack when they can just go to the marketplace and buy 80% of the players for just $3 anyway? Now the appeal of new packs is clearly for those who like to gamble and try to pick up a LeBron or Luka for just $3. But the majority of new collectors are simply going to step right into the marketplace and purchase many moments for just $3. This should set a floor price for these moments.
The addition of trade tickets will also increase the demand for these mostly unwanted moments in the bottom of the price range. Many more established collectors will be stepping into the market and snatching up as many $1 & $2 moments as they can, thus once again supporting the base $3 price.
I, like many others, got burnt by the most recent rare pack release. I sold my rare Throwdowns moment and started buying common moments. I focused particularly on picking up some of the leagues best stars who are likely to run deep into the playoffs. Many of these moments are just a fraction of the price they were a jet a couple months ago. her is a list of some the pick up I made in the last week.
Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Gianis Antekokoumpo, Julius Randle, Joel Embiid, Devon Booker, Donavan Mitchell, Bradly Beal. All of these guys are top 20 league stars and I was able to pick up each and every one of them for under $10. I do not buy serial numbers more than 3500 either. When the prices do increase, these will be the moments that shoot up the most.
I also took chances on a few other players that I thought had the most upside in the playoffs including Clint Capela, Blake Griffen, Andrew Wiggins, Serge Ibaka, Alex Caruso, Bam Adebayo, Jrue Holiday, Derick Rose, Ben Simmons, CJ McCollum, Jordan Clarkson. If their respective teams make a good push in the playoffs, or even win a championship, their prices are sure to rocket.
Now it is absolutely possible that the market continues to go down for the next few weeks or even months. Be prepared and steadfast if it does. But I do think we are near the bottom and everyone should be either hanging on at this point or adding to their positions if they can. Hopefully everyone still has some Dapper left in their accounts to take advantage of the currently low prices.
So happy bargain shopping everyone. It is a Black Friday sale at Top Shot right now. As early adopters, you all have an excellent opportunity to profit from the ground floor.