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I have now gotten the Suns/Mavericks series wrong in three straight games, so it would be safe to assume I will not be betting that series the rest of the way. But my NBA Playoffs picks are still in profit at 15-11.
NBA Playoffs: Grizzlies (+10.5) @ Warriors $
The big story here is Ja Morrant being listed as doubtful for Game 4 with an injured knee. There was controversy over the play with Morant calling out Jordan Poole for a dirty play grabbing his knee and causing the injury. There is a debate as to whether the grab actually caused the injury, but if the Grizzlies think it was then that is all that matters. The team is likely to come out fired up looking to get revenge just as the Warriors did in game three after Gary Payton was flagrantly injured.
By now most NBA fans have heard the stat that the Grizzlies were 20-5 without Morant in the lineup this season. That of course would suggest that the (+10.5) point spread is far too high. It is true that the Grizzlies are blessed with tremendous bench depth beyond their starters. Tyus Jones and De’Anthony Melton are both quality guards coming off the bench to take up Morant’s minutes so his absence should not be as impactful as most people would think. The line maker has added an additional 3.5 points to this line from the (-7) it was for game three.
This is pretty much a must-win game for the Grizzlies so I expect them to be highly emotional and focused. The Warriors shot ‘god mode’ in game three so it would be difficult to match those numbers in back-to-back games. I don’t necessarily see the Grizzlies winning the game, but they should be able to get this matchup within ten points.
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I also coach live poker players, helping them win more often. Of course, you can follow more of my NBA writings right here at Last Word on Sports or find me on Twitter to stay up to date on all my latest blogs and helpful tips to grow your bankroll. NBA Playoffs Odds are provided by CloudBet as of writing time.