Bucks (-4.5) Vs Suns $$

Milwaukee Bucks will most certainly come out tonight with their best effort of the series so far with this essentially being a most win game if they hope to win the Championship.

Looking back at game two, it was much closer than the score suggested with the 8 point Suns victory. The Bucks out rebounded the Suns, but that doesn’t go deep enough. The biggest determinant of the victory was the 3P%. Bucks shot poorly with 9/31 or 29%. The Suns on the other hand, were 20/40 for 50%. If you normalize these numbers for both teams closer to their season averages of 40%, the score becomes much different from the 118-110 score. This calculation flips the score to a 119-106 victory for the Bucks, a drastic difference.

But basketball is more than just numbers and random variables. What do the Bucks need to do even this 3P% differential against the Suns?

For the Bucks, they can start by having Giannis take zero 3 pointers. He stills insists on taking at least a few of these shots every night despite not having good percentage. Kris Middleton is a streaky shooter and he simply just needs to be better and I expect him to do so based on his past results from these playoffs. The Bucks also need to be better guarding Booker and Paul up high. I expect them to make the adjustments necessary to get around the high screens the Suns have been killing everyone in these playoffs. Statistically, Booker cannot really expect to keep hitting at the same rate, but maybe he really is that good and continues. I expect the Bucks to come up with a better defensive effort tonight and and get the win tonight.

This will likely be my last pick of the 2021 NBA season. It was an exceptionally good year for me going a documented 88-65 for 57.5%. If you look more closely at my best and premium plays, these numbers become much better even. I went 44-23 for 65.6% on the season.

Enjoy the rest of the finals and I will see you next season.