Free UFC Vegas 38 Picks – Santos Vs Walker


UFC: Thiago Santos (-160) Vs Johnny Walker $

There is not much to analyze about this fight other than both of these guys are going to throw as hard as they are able to until somebody gets knocked out. This fight is scheduled for five rounds, but really that is just a formality as there very little chance that this fight goes to the judges. Someone will get knocked. If you can find a line for a KO win, you should take that line over the full fight line to increase your return on your wager.

I give Thiago an advantage in this fight as he does seem the more dangerous of the two combatants. I would also rate Santos’ level of competition higher than anything Walker has experienced, particularly his 5 round war with Jon Jones for the UFC Light heavyweight belt. I know he is currently on a three fight losing streak, but he did come very close to becoming the light heavyweight champion.

Johnny Walker has a good resume as well, but he has not faced the level of competition that Thiago has. In his last fight, Johnny did get a win over a tough Ryan Spann. He did get a little lucky in that fight as Spann made a bad tactical decision hanging on to a take down attempt far too long and exposing himself to hammer fists leading to a KO. If not for that mistake by Spann, Johnny Walker would be on a three fight losing streak of his own.

It should be a fun fight. The first man to land that big shot should get the win.

UFC: Joe Solecki (-125) Vs Jared Gordon $$

Whenever I see an up and coming fighter that I think has potential to become a serious title challenger, I love to let my readers aware of them. In the past I have written about Paddy Pimblett and Giga Chikadze and on this undercard is another interesting fighter named Joe Solecki.

Solecki is a wizard BJJ and grappling practitioner who took out Legend Jim Miller in his last fight. He has a high fight IQ that allows him to take advantage of his opponents weaknesses and leverages his own strengths. This is a traits shared by many great UFC champions including George St.Pierre and Jon Jones.

What I most impressed with was actually his post fight interview after beating Jim Miller. He is tremendously grounded and has a great support system and family to help him perform this best. This is an asset that is truly valuable and frequently overlooked.

When I watched the interview of his opponent, Jared Gordon, I saw the opposite. I saw an undisciplined fighter that still doesn’t have his personal life under control. He missed weight in his last fight and I also found a video of him initiating a street fight with a civilian. This is the type of guy that I do not want to bet on. I watched some video on Gordon and he looked competitive enough, but I get the impression he will be just a stepping stone for better more disciplined fighters.

Joe Solecki should take that step and easily win this fight regardless of where the fight goes.

UFC 2021 selections 49-17, 74.2%, +18.1 units

UFC odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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