Free UFC Picks/Vegas 39 – Mackenzie Dern


UFC: M Dern (-170) Vs M Rodriguez $$

This is a bad matchup for Marina Rodriguez. She is a Muay Thai specialist with some clear deficiencies with grappling and BJJ. She will outpoint most every other woman is this woman’s straw weight division and can get a decision against most female fighters.

The problem is when the fight moves to the ground she becomes a fish out of water. In the fourth round of her last fight against Michelle Waterson, she was taken to the ground and pretty much just laid there for nearly 4 minutes until the round was over. Waterson missed an opportunity to win this fight by choosing to stand and trade with Rodriguez instead of forcing the action to the ground.

The fact that this fight is set for five rounds actually favours Dern. If this fight goes to the judges, I am quite certain Rodriguez will win a decision. The problem is I do not see it getting there. If and when this fight goes to the ground, the finish is likely not more than a minute or at most two minutes away. Dern is an assassin on the ground an has a long highlight reel of impressive submissions.

Few woman in this strawweight division have actual knock out power. This is another factor that favours Dern as it will allow her to attack recklessly with overhand rights followed by a takedown without fear of getting knocked out. Mackenzie would surely trade a couple jabs and even a right straight in order to get a takedown and I expect her to do just that.

UFC 2021 selections 50-19, +16.7 Units, 24.2% ROI

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Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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