Free TNF Picks – Week 3, 2021


TNF: Texans / Panthers UNDER (43.5) $

After two weeks of the 2021 NFL season, my spreadsheet has the Carolina Panthers rated as the number 1 team in football. I don’t expect them to finish the season in that spot as they were the beneficiaries of a favourable schedule with wins against the Jets and Saints, both at home.

Because of that strong start, the Panthers are listed as 8 points favourites in Houston on TNF. The Panthers play a really boring type of football that is generally good for ATS covers and low scoring games. As I wrote about this past weekend, Carolina has a very simple strategy of getting the ball to Christian McCaffrey 30 times a game and not turning the ball over.

Sam Darnold has 1 INT and 2 fumbles in the first two games, which is OK, but is much better than what we came to expect from him with the Jets. This makes me think the problem wasn’t with Darnold, rather with the Jets. As a side note the may help explain why Zach Wilson has struggled so much in his first two games with the Jets.

The Texans will be down to their third string QB for this game and are expected to start third round rookie Davis Mills out of Stanford for this matchup. This could greatly change the Texan’s strategy for this game as they are likely to be far more conservative to protect the rookie QB in his first start.

The Panthers have also gone under the number in five consecutive games dating back to last year and I see no reason why this one won’t as well on TNF.

I narrowly missed a winning week this past weekend going 4-5 and am now 8-8 for the year. But if you include my 11-6 record in NCAAF, I am a healthy 19-14 57.6% for the season. I will be releasing my weekly NFL selections tomorrow so make sure you check back regularly for my Daily Picks.

NFL/TNF Odds and Analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

Recent Posts

Sign up for My Newsletter

Exclusive handicapping reports right to your inbox.