NFL: Giants (-3) Vs Falcons $
Daniel Jones was one few bright spots in the Giants loss to the Redskins on TNF last week. What I was most impressed with was a couple runs he had including a 46 yard joints that really should have been a 60+ yard TD if not for a bad penalty. He also has not yet thrown an INT in the first two games which is huge improvement over last season. Jones may not be the second coming of Tom Brady, but if he has time to throw, he can make some plays. The problem is he has not had enough time to throw the ball because of a questionable offensive line.
This week Jones gets a favourable matchup against the Falcons who really just got lit up by Brady & Co last week. The Bucs moved the ball at will against the Falcons secondary and I suspect Jones and the Giants will also find some success.
I have never really been a huge fan of Matt Ryan as he is only an average career NFL QB and his best games are behind him. After falling behind by 18 points to the Bucs, Matty Ice attempted a come back that ultimately fell short when he threw 2 – 4th quarter pick 6’s.
Neither of these teams are very good honestly and both teams are sure to miss the playoffs after going 0-2 to start the season. I do like the Giants to get their first win and see them as the least bad team in this matchup.
NFL: 49ers (-3.5) Vs Packers $
Aaron Rodgers looked better in the second game of the season against the Lions, but he still does not seem to be himself. I still cannot get past the opening day debacle that was a 38-3 loss to the Saints. The entire team looked bad in that outing and there is still a chance it could happen again as they were also losing the to the Lions at half time.
There are rumours of discontenting the Packer’s locker room and I certainly do not like Aaron’s preseason talk about being 50/50 about retirement. The Packer’s are lacking some intangibles still and I will not be betting on them until I can see more enthusiasm from them.
This week they have a tough road game in SF against the 49ers who have looked decent to start the season. SF has two wins already and looked poised to make a return to the playoffs this season after an injury riddled campaign in 2020. I like them to get the win and cover in this matchup against the uninspired Packers.
NFL: Lions (+8.5) Vs Ravens $
This is just another ugly dog. I don’t particularly like the Lions, but they did show some guts against the 49ers trying to make the comeback and they did lead the Packers at half time before their collapse. Their problem is inconsistency and if they ever manage to play a full 60 minutes, they could win this game SU, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The more likely scenario is the back door cover.
The 8.5 points is just too many against a run heavy team like the Ravens. Ravens coming off a huge win against he Chiefs and it is possible they overlook the Lions.
NFL: Bengals / Steelers Under (43.5) $
The Steelers are not a good football team and I have been saying so since late last season. Roethlisberger is questionable for this game, but he hasn’t played well at all regardless. I wanted very badly to take the Bengals in this matchup, but Joe Burrow was terrible last week throwing 3 INTs on three consecutive pass attempts. The Steeler pass rush is quite good but now TJ Watt is also questionable for this one.
The last thing that kept me off the Bengals is the spread. This line opened at Steelers (-7) and has now moved all the way down to (-3). This is huge move and likely an over-reaction to the potential Steeler injuries.
In the end, these are two bad offences and one potentially really good defence in PIT. This should be a 16-13 game with lots of field goals and little deep passing. Give me the Under.
This is not a particularly good card for week 3 so I don’t want to make any double plays yet, but check back later in the week to see if I have any late picks. After two weeks I am 8-8, but I feel a bit unlucky with a couple games so far so I am looking for a break out week soon.
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NFL Odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.