Free NFL Picks – Week 18


NFL: Browns (-6) Vs Bengals $

There is almost a predictable pattern for the Cleveland Browns. They typically lose high-pressure or rivalry games they expect to win often in agonizing fashion. They also frequently win unimportant games they really should lose. This game falls into the latter. I fully expect the Brown to win this game even with Case Keenum under center.

The Bengals have already said they plan on resting most of their starters as they have already clinched their first AFC North title since 2015. How can you put money on a football team that is not fully committed to winning the game? The NFL is far too competitive to expect anything other than a loss for a team in that situation.

NFL: Lions (+3) Vs Packers $

Same as above. The Packers have locked up the number one spot in the NFC and will rightfully enjoy the two weeks of rest they have well earned. Matt LaFleur has already stated he plans on playing all of his starters for this game, but frankly, I do not believe him. That is something that is said often just for appearances. Rodger & Co might play the first half, but I expect to see Aaron smiling on the bench for most of this game.

Do not be shocked at all when the Lions win this game. It could be the biggest win for them all season against a team that may be only mildly interested in the outcome.

NFL: Titans (-10) @ Texans $$

What an enormous gift the Titans received last week when the Bengals knocked off the Chiefs. All that is needed for the Titans to win the AFC top spot is to knock off the lowly Texans. TEN will be in full playoff mode for the game and I expect them to roll over their divisional rivals in this matchup.

The Texans have barely had a pulse all season and I don’t think they have it in them to take down the number one team in the conference in this spot.

NFL: Colts (-1100 ML) @ Jaguars $$$$

This may be the closest thing to a lock you will ever see win the NFL. I do not believe in locks or sure bets, but the Colts should win this game more than 92% of the time required to make this bet profitable. These two teams may actually be the best and worst teams in the AFC right now. Add the bonus motivation of a playoff spot for the better side and there can be little argument left for taking the underdog.

I am choosing the money line in this spot rather than laying the (-15.5) points as there is no added benefit to the Colts for running up the score. They can still win only one playoff berth. If the Jags play well they may still find a way to cover this big spread, but I see little hope for them to find an upset here.

NFL: Dolphins (+6) Vs Patriots $$

The Patriots still have an outside chance of winning the AFC East, but they need the Jets to win as 16-point dogs in BUF first for the opportunity. I do not see Bill Belichick emptying all his barrels in this game that likely won’t make any difference in their playoff matchup. They are looking at a trip to Buffalo in January regardless of the outcome of this game. Their focus is likely to be on that taunting task and not on the beaches of Miami.

Besides the Dolphins are still a good team and this line seems too high for me under a normal situation. Miami always gives the Pats fits and I don’t expect anything different in this matchup. I see the Dolphins getting the SU win and a moral victory in this game.

NFL: Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons $

The Saints need this game to stay alive in the playoff race. They also need the Rams to beat the 49ers in a game being played simultaneously. Again I will rarely bet against a team with such clear and tangible motivation.

Besides, the Falcons are not a good football team. How they managed to win even 7 games seems amazing to me. They have already exceeded their potential for the season and I see them folding in this pivotal game for their opponent.

NFL: Chargers (-3) @ Raiders $

This is a great matchup of two 9-7 teams with the winner getting a spot in the NFL postseason.

I have been betting against the Raiders all season and they have frustrated me more than a couple of times. They are not a playoff calibre team and I expect them to lose this game.

The Chargers are better coached, have a better QB, and they should be the hungrier team in this matchup.

It hasn’t been my best season of NFL predictions as I sit at precisely 50.0% for the season. I made up for it with a huge 59.8% clip in NCAAF. The final week of the NFL season traditionally offers the most profitable betting opportunities all season. This season should be no different and I plan on hitting this card hard. Be sure to check out my Daily Picks page for next weekend’s playoffs games as well as my all my NBA picks.

Legend – $ one unit play – $$ two unit play – $$$ four unit play

NFL Odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

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Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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