Free NFL Picks – Week 11, 2021


NFL: Jaguars (+6.5) Vs 49ers $$

The Jaguars continue to move up my power rankings and are approaching middle of the pack territory. Sure they lost to the Colts last week but they didn’t play too badly. Considering the value they are still getting from the line maker, the Jags are actually my favourite value team right now.

This week Jacksonville is getting a big number once again at home against a very average 49er team. The 49ers are a solid team but still lacks any kind of identity. Garoppolo has played decently, but if the team actually had faith in him, they wouldn’t have drafted Trey lance. The defence is good, but not great so I don’t see how this team makes the playoffs in a tough NFC West.

I look for the Jaguar offence to continue improving as the season progresses as the defence holds downs the fort. There is value in this line and it is my strongest play of the week at (+6.5).

NFL: Jets (+3.5) Vs Dolphins $

The Jets are terrible. I have them rated only slightly higher than the Texans. But if you haven’t noticed, the Dolphins aren’t so good either. Laying more than a field goal on the road for a team that absolutely cannot run the ball effectively is just lighting money on fire.

The Dolphins have now won two in a row after a seven game losing streak. They should be the better team in this matchup, but I still think they are far off the playoff caliber team there were last year. I am willing to back them as underdogs, but this is not a team I want to be laying road points on. This line should be closer to a pick, or at least under a field goal.

NFL: Chargers (-4.5) Vs Steelers $

The Steelers really blew the game last week against the Lions. The game ended in a tie, but really it should have been an easy victory for Pittsburgh. The offence simply was unable to move the ball when the opportunity to win the game was right in front of them. Big Ben will be back in the lineup this week, but really he hasn’t played that well this season anyway. The biggest news for the game is actually the absence of TJ Watt who is out with a knee injury.

I am a big Justin Herbert fan as he is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL. He should have a little extra time in the pocket this week not having to worry about the QB killer Watt coming up the middle taking him out. The Chargers are the better team in this matchup and I like them to get a win here against a the short handed Steelers.

After a slow start to the season, I am now 47-41 (53.4%) ATS in the NFL. But it is in NCAAF were I am really crushing it with a 99-61 (61.9%) and +24.6 units for the season as of this writing. All my picks are documented and released free of charge prior to the games so make sure you are checking my Daily Picks page regularly.

NFL Odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Picture of Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

Recent Posts

Sign up for My Newsletter

Exclusive handicapping reports right to your inbox.