NFL: Packers (+6.5) @ Cardinals $
Cardinals remain the only undefeated team in the NFL after 7 weeks, which sets up nicely against them in week 8. Despite their obvious run of good play, I still have them power rated 4th in the NFL behind BUF, DAL, & TB.
Undefeated teams more than mid way through the season are notoriously bad ATS, so I see no reason to go against that trend in this matchup. I doubt the Cards are actually 3-4 points better than the Packers although most power rating would say as much (including my own). If you had seen the line for this game in the preseason, it likely favoured GB by (-3) give or take. That is a huge 10 point line adjustment in just two months.
The biggest point not to forget here is the Packers are also 6-1! They started the season with a blow out loss to NO, and since then have taken care of business with solid wins in every game. They will be without the services of Devonte Adams for at least one game due to a highly contagious flu bug, but I think they can survive one game without him and his absence will already be accounted for in the point spread.
The disadvantage of being undefeated is that you will always get every team’s best game with that target on your back. GB’s best game is pretty good even with a couple WRs out, so I expect a one possession game late in the fourth quarter. I’m happy to grab 6.5 points here and if you wait until kickoff, you may even snag 7.
