Free NFL Picks - TNF Week 6, 2021

NFL: Buccaneers / Eagles Over (51.5) $

Whenever I look at a total, I usually start with how many point I expect the favourite team to score. In this matchup we have TB12 and the Bucs who are averaging 33.4 points per game this season. The median score is also important and in this case, the Bucs have scored 30+ in three of their five games, but if you look back to last season, they scored 30+ in 7 straight games to finish the season including the playoffs. That is 10 of 12 games scoring 30+ points, which is impressive.

They face an Eagles defence on TNF that is slightly below average in terms of efficiency rating and passing yards allowed and shouldn’t present any major hurdles for TB. Watching Tom play last week, he just seems to be getting better with age like a vintage wine. He ripped the Dolphin’s secondary apart and on top of it all, chose to run up the score even when the final result was not in question. All this leads me to believe the Bucs should be able to put up 31-35 points without much difficulty. My biggest concern is the Bucs have struggled to score in each of their last two road games (24 in LA and 19 in NE), so this play would be stronger if they were at home.

We next look at the Eagles offence who have struggled much of the season. However I like Jalen Hurts enough to expect him to make some plays late in a game, particularly if they are trailing be two or more scores and at home. I suspect they will need to put 27 points or more in order to have a chance to win (or cover) so Hurts will need to take more shots down the field than he did last week in the win against CAR.