NFL: Chargers (-4.5) Vs Patriots $$
This is primarily a strength of schedule play. The Patriots have feasted on weak competition so far this year including two blowout wins against the Jets and another against the Texans. That is a complete list of their wins this year, and oh ya they are they only team to loss to the Dolphins this season. The Patriots are 3-4 but their teams stats have been bloated by these lop-sided wins giving the impression they are much better than they actually are.
The Chargers in comparison have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL so far and have only two loses. They lost a close game to the power house Cowboys and a blowout loss against the Ravens two weeks ago. They have now had two weeks to recover emotionally from that bad game and regroup. I expect a solid game from Justin Herbert and a new coaching plan out the Chargers in this matchup who are surely the better. I see a 34-17 type of win against the Patriots who will just not be able to keep pace.
NFL: Jaguars (+3.5) @ Seahawks $
The is the classic case of two teams moving n different directions. At first glance you may be tempted to think this (-3.5) spread is to low given the past history of these teams. Seahawks are a perennial playoff team while the Jaguars managed only a single win all of last season.
The truth is the Seahawks have not played well all season with the defence playing particularly bad. Now with the loss of Wilson at QB, the offence is predictably struggling as well. Gino Smith is nothing more than a game manager and he may not have even a 300 yard passing game in him. He has only 1 INT in three games so that is at least encouraging. But they cannot run the ball well enough to make up for their lack of production passing.
In contrast the Jaguars are a team growing in confidence. They are coming off their first win after 20 consecutive loses. They also had the extra week of practice to prepare for this game and adjust to their travel schedule of ten time zones. Trevor Lawrence. should continue to grow and improve as the season progresses and this soft Seahawk secondary could be exactly what he needs to get on track. Is it possible the Jags could go on a multiple game winning streak here? Maybe…
NFL: Cowboys (-2.5) @ Vikings $
This line has now moved to (-3) by most bookmakers after being hammered by Cowboy fans and bandwagon jumpers everywhere. The line opened in many places with the Vikings even being the favourites but no one wanted to bet on Minnesota. I got down on this game at (-2.5) earlier in the week but if your book is offering you (-3), just know that most of the value in this game is probably lost at this point.
I do love the Cowboys just like every other NFL fan this year. The have a dominant offence with the defence showing steady improvement so they should be considered serious Super Bowl contenders. But the Vikings are a decent team as well and do play well at home so (-3) does seem close to a fair number. If you want action on the late game, I’d probable still be on the Cowboys, but not for a full unit.