Free NFL Picks – Late Week 7, 2021


NFL: Lions (+16) @ Rams $

This may be the biggest revenge game on the schedule this week. Jared Goff makes his return to LA to face his old team and coach after being unceremoniously being traded in for luxury model QB in Matthew Stafford. It was a not so subtle dis against Goff who if he is the type to hold a grudge, would have this game circled since pre-season. I expect a high quality effort out of the Lions QB this week.

Besides that angle, I just do not see this huge line (-16) being justified. Sure the Lions are on the road and are 0-6, but I do not see them being as bad as their record indicates. My rankings have 8 (yes eight), teams rated below the Lions. They lost two games (Ravens, Viking) on the last play of the game. I’m not naive enough to think they should win this game SU, but it is reasonable to think it should a competitive game.

The Rams are a quality team for certain, but I am not yet ready to crown them Super Bowl favourites yet. They should take an early lead with the Lions hanging around close enough to keep it interesting and possibly getting the hated back door cover.

NFL: Colts (+4) @ 49ers $

I have these two teams rated nearly dead even. The difference is one team is improving while the other is not. The Colts rolled the Texans last week and dominated the Ravens for three quarters the week before that. I am not a huge Carson Wentz fan, but his numbers are steadily improving and has only a single INT so far this season against nine 9 which is actually impressive.

Both Garoppolo and Trey Lance are listed as questionable for this matchup but Jimmy G should make the start. I’m not sure what plan C is for SF, but they could be in trouble if it comes to that. Regardless, I would rate both their current options below Wentz right now. This line seems a smidge too high and I would have placed it less that three points, so I am happy to get the extra value on the visiting team.

Be sure to check my Daily Picks page for all my free NFL/NCAAF picks and analysis including my NFL Early Week 7 posted earlier this week.

NFL Odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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