Free NFL Picks – Late Week 5, 2021


NFL: Bills (+3) @ Chiefs $$$

This is the Sunday night game and features an AFC Conference Final rematch from last season. The KC are still listed by many people as the favourites to win the Super Bowl this year, but these lists are changing quickly.

When most people look at the Buffalo Bills this season, they see Josh Allen and perhaps Stephan Diggs. I see the NFL’s top rated defence. The Bills secured their second shut out of this early season against the Texans in a 40-0 blowout. It is hard to understate how rare and impressive those two performances by the Bills truly are. I went back to see how many shut outs there were in the NFL in 2020 and the answer I found was only 3. One more shut out this season by the Bills would tie the total for the entire league all last season and Buffalo has 12 more games this regular season to do just that.

So not only do opponents have to deal with Josh Allen, Stephan Diggs and Devin Singletary, they now have to try to score against the stingiest defence in the NFL. It boggles my mind how a bad Steelers team went into BUF and beat them in week 1. It was a combination of turnovers, bad bounces and a couple 4th down stuffs, otherwise everyone would be talking about how the Bills could potentially be going 17-0 this season.

Now let’s look at their opponents for the week, the KC Chiefs who may actually be the most overrated team in the NFL right now. Granted they are still a quality team and should be a lock to make another playoff appearance. But I would not rate this team to be Super Bowl contenders based purely on their performance so far this season. They are currently looking up at three teams in the AFC West and I really felt they were lucky to beat the Browns in week 1.

The reason for the Chiefs drop-off so far this season clearly is the defence which is ranked near the bottom in nearly every category. Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce are going to get their points every week but the major question is the defence going to get enough stops to get them back into the divisional race and deep into the playoffs? I’m not sure they will.

This is also a huge revenge game for the Bills trying to make a statement after their humbling loss in the playoffs last year and is game they surely had circled since preseason. Everything points to a Bills win in this matchup and we are even getting an extra field goal to boot. I’m going to make this my first premium triple play $$$ of the season and take the Bills on the road.

NFL: 49ers (+5.5) @ Cardinals $

And then there was one! The Cardinals are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL after only 4 weeks of play. There is a well known secret in the NFL that undefeated teams do notoriously bad ATS past week 4. I am a bit disappointed this season there is only one such team to bet against this week.

Undefeated teams cannot be over-rated more than they already are and the point spread is always just a little too high. Cardinals won a huge came in LA last week over the top rated Rams and an emotional let after that seems reasonable. My power ratings have this matchup in favour of the Cardinals by 4.5, which is only a small lean to SF. But I will stick to one of the few system plays that I like to play and fade the the undefeated team.

NFL: Giants / Cowboys Over (52.5) $

The Cowboy offence has been impressive so far this season and I have them rated number one in the NFL right now. I was really tempted to bet Dallas in this spot as I see them putting up 34+ point again today. My concern is the Giants are also showing signs of life behind Daniel Jones so I was worried about them putting 27+ points of their own. The game may turn into a shoot out and I am worried about the Giants getting that back door cover.

There seemed a pretty simple solution to that problem and I just decided to take the over instead which seemed the even better play in this spot.

It is huge week of football action. Make sure you check out all my free selections and analysis on my Daily Picks page for all your sports betting action including my MNF selection to be released Sunday night.

NFL odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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