Free NFL Picks - Late Week 4, 2021

NFL: Broncos (+1) Vs Ravens $$

I don’t really understand why Denver should be home underdogs in this matchup as my spread sheet has them pegged as the much better team. The biggest knock against the 3-0 Broncos is that they haven’t played any opponents yet. That is a fair statement, but even if I adjusted 3 or 4 point against them for strength of schedule, they are still the better team.

Raven had a miracle granted last week with a 66 yard game winning field goal and a missed delay of game non-call by the officials that gave them a winning Detroit. Lamar Jackson is actually listed as questionable for the game, but I expect hime to play. He is running the ball same as every other year, but still struggles get the ball downfield. This is a bad matchup for the Ravens as well, as the Broncos sport the second best rush defence in the NFL behind only CAR. If Denver can stack the line of scrimmage without fear of giving up a deep play, it could be a long day for Baltimore.

Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater is playing the best ball of his career with a 76.8% completions and still no INTs on 4 TDs. I think CAR is going to regret giving up on Teddy so quickly. I’ll make this my top play of the week.

NFL : Packers (-6.5) Vs Steelers $

I am going to just keep pounding this Steeler team until every realizes how bad they really are. I still can’t imagined how they managed to win in Buffalo but bad teams still do win in the NFL sometimes. They cannot run the ball and Ben still cannot throw the deep ball anymore. I don’t see how this combination is going to win even 6 games. The defence may win some games, but his team is in trouble.

Meanwhile, the Packer’s week 1 humiliation to the Saints is finally being dismissed as a fluke outlier. They had a good cover against the Lions and an impressive win in SF last week. This team and Aaron Rodgers are getting their shit together and starting to look like the NFC conference challengers from last year.

NFL: Dolphins (-1.5) Vs Colts $

The Colts have not been playing like we saw them play last season. I questioned this acquisition of Carson Wentz from the Eagles in the offseason and isn’t looking like it going to pay off. They are in danger of being out of the playoff run early in the season and it doesn’t get easier playing in Miami.

Back Jacoby Brissett gets his second start of the season for injured Tagovailoa, but really the Dolphins could be better with the backup. The Dolphin D continues to play well and have been forcing turnover as well. They should be able to score just enough points to get this win at home.

NFL: Giants ( +8) @ Saints $

I keep waiting for Daniel Jones to have a breakout game and I feel this could be the week it happens against this suspect Saint secondary. The Giants are clearly not a playoff team, but I don’t see the Saints making it either and they just are not good enough to be laying 8 points here. I’ll take my chances with the points.