Free NFL Picks – Early Week 6, 2021


NFL: Jaguars (+3 / +135 ML) N Dolphins $$

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-5 for the season but they are not the worst team in the NFL. My personal power ratings currently have five different teams rated below the Jaguars including their opponent this week, the Miami Dolphins. The Jags and Phins hook up this week in London England for a game I’m doubting many people will bother to wake up early enough to watch.

The only interesting thing about this matchup is to see if Jacksonville can get their first win of the season, and I think they will. The Dolphin’s season is practically already over as they have been absolutely terrible so far and no one in South Beach should expect this team to return to the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa is expected back under center Sunday, but that doesn’t matter much as he wasn’t playing well before he cracked his ribs and Jacoby Brissett was a poor substitute during Tua’s absence. They are also ranked dead last in NFL rushing which is a serious problem for a team that threw the ball downfield. The defence also looked absolutely horrible last week against Brady and even seemed to give up late in that game. I see no reason to be optimistic about the Dolphins right now and they are being asked to give more than a field goal on a neutral field.

Meanwhile, Jaguars are showing some signs of life. Their running game now has actually improved to ‘above average’ which should give Trevor Lawrence more time to throw the ball against a soft Dolphin secondary. They narrowly missed getting their first win in Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, but I expect them to get the job this week in London against a even worse team.

Give me one unit on the point spread and another sprinkled one the money line.

NFL: Lions (+3.5 / +155 ML) Vs Bengals $$

I’m going for a theme this week and betting on two winless teams back to back to pick their first victories in week 6. The Lions are not as bad as their 0-5 record. They pretty much dominated the Ravens in week 3 but lost on a miracle ending and poor refereeing. They should have won last week in Minnesota as well.

I have these teams rated pretty much even, with perhaps a small learn in favour of the Bengals. But the line is offering 3.5 points at home to take the Lions based heavily on their winless record. The Lions should finally find the win column this week and I’ll make the same bet as above with the sprinkle for good luck.

NFL: Panthers (+2) Vs Vikings $

The Vikings are an average NFL team in just about every category. They should win 8 or 9 games this year give or take a couple bounces either way. There shouldn’t too many games in the NFL where an average team should be laying points on the road and this wouldn’t normally be one of them.

When I first saw this line it seemed slanted towards the Vikings but then I remembered the McCaffrey factor. Christian is still listed a questionable for this matchup, but the line has clearly adjusted for his absence. I would lean towards the Panthers at (+2) even if if I knew he would be out. But if he does actually play, the Panthers are getting good value here. Few individual players in the NFL have a bigger influence on their team success more than McCaffrey so I’ll take the value in the (+2) and hope he comes back to influence this game.

I was 6-7 last week for my NFL picks but am still a healthy 29-22 (56.9%) for the season.

There are at least a couple more games where I want to wait for an updated injury report before I give my final selections plus I will have picks for the afternoon/late SNF game. Be sure to check back on my Daily Picks page regularly for all my NFL/NCAAF picks free of charge.

NFL odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

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Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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