NFL: Dolphins (+7.5) Vs Ravens $
The Dolphins are not a good football team. They absolutely cannot run the ball effectively and the QB play has been terrible (both Tua and Brissett). Their defence, particularly their run defence, is likely their best team but is still only around league average.
Why then would I be betting on them? Well they are improving so they should be better this week than they were earlier in the season. Also this line is simply too high. Spreads of more than 7 points for road team in the NFL should be reserved only for dominant teams.
Are the Ravens a dominant team? Ah, I’m not sold on them yet. Yes they are winning, but I wouldn’t call it dominating. Truthfully they were lucky in a couple games already and easily could have found themselves 4-4 instead of 6-2. They are also a rush heavy team lead by Lamar and they could struggle running the ball this week on the road against a decent Dolphin rush defence.
I like the Dolphins to stay within this spread in a low scoring game.
My NFL picks were a perfect 6-0 last week and am now 44-39 (53%) for the season. Make sure you are checking out my Daily Picks page frequently to get all my selections for free. It is another huge upcoming weekend of NCAAF after crushing the line again last week for 15-7 ATS (82-52, 61.2% season).