Free NCAAF Picks – Early Week 13, 2021


NCAAF: Miss St (-1.5) Vs Mississippi $$$

This game kickoffs on Thursday so make sure to get down on the game early. I have been betting on the Bulldogs all season and they have been very good to me so I am going to make them a premium play for the third time this NCAAF season.

Miss St has just a 7-4 record but statistically they are far better than their record would indicate, especially playing a tough SEC schedule. They have three losses by a field goal or less so it isn’t hard to imagine them at 8-3 or even 9-2. Will Rogers is having a masterful sophomore season and it is easy to see him being a high NFL draft pick. The Bulldogs are also backed by a highly under-rated defence.

AT 9-2, the Rebels are a fine team also, but have benefited from a far softer schedule than Miss St while managing to pull through victorious in a couple closer games. They boost a high octane offence that tries to steam roll opponents, usually with success. But they are going to have problems doing so this week against a stubborn Bulldogs defence in a hostile environment.

Despite the records, I feel Miss St is the far superior team in this matchup and I would have put this line north of 7, or even 10 points.

NCAFF: N Carolins St (-6) Vs N Carolina $$$

The Wolfpack have been one of the best teams in the ACC all season. Devin Leary is having a great campaign with over 3,100 yards passing and a 31/5 TD to Int ratio. Even more impressive than that is the high quality play they have seen from their defence which I would easily rate as the best in the conference.

The fact that the line for this game is still only 6 points, is a testament to how over-rated the Tar Heel program is and that far too many people still believe they are a quality team. Their defence has been absolutely porous and the only way they can win games against quality opposition is by getting into shoot outs and hoping for the best.

The Wolfpack will be able to score in this game, to that there is no question. The more important thing to watch is if UNC can manage to put up even 20 points. My guess is likely not, which makes the 6 point spread a little trivial. I see a blowout in this game in something like 41-17 and this is my second premium play on this card.

NCAAF: Kansas St (+3) @ Texas $$

The Longhorns are in complete free fall and show no sign of pulling the shoot. I have lost track of how many second half leads they have blown this season, but I doubt it fits on one hand. The loss to Kansas too weeks ago as (-31) point favourites was just an absolute disaster of epic proportions. Coach Sarkisian has lost this team and when that happens, the points spreads don’t even matter anymore.

I barely looked at who the Texas opponent was, but the the Wildcats are a decent team and should pick a win against the lifeless Longhorns.

NCAAF: Arkansas (-14.5) Vs Missouri $$

Missouri picked up a high quality win last week against a vulnerable Gators team to get NCAAF Bowl eligibility. It was by far the biggest win of a disappointing season. The Tigers have four victories against bad competition but have been badly outplayed facing quality opposition (the Gators being the exception). They are in a really bad spot this week coming off a highly emotional win.

Missouri easily has the worst run defence in the SEC and now they face the Razorbacks who love to dominate their opponents with the running game. I don’t see how Missouri can stop the massive running threat the Razorback present while still managing to contain KJ Jefferson. Arkansas should put up 300+ rushing yards while scoring almost every possession. Missouri simply does not have the guns to hang with that firepower. I see a 44-17 result.

I had another massive week in NCAAF going 20-9 last week including 3-0 on my premium picks which are 12-2 now for the season. For the season I am 119-69 (63.3%), +40.2 units. Make sure to check my Daily Picks page regularly to get the rest free NCAAF picks for the week.

NCAAF Odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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