Free NCAAF Picks – Early Week 11, 2021


NCAAF: Pittsburgh (-6.5) Vs North Carolina $$$

This is a Thursday night game so make sure you get in on this game early.

My model has loved the Panthers all season long and I have been riding this team for several weeks now. Kenny Pickett should have a field day in this matchup as the Tar Heel secondary has been terrible this season. I just do not see how UNC is going to hold PITT under 49 points. So in order for UNC to cover this game, they are likely going to need 6 or more touchdowns.

The Panther defence is certainly good enough to to hold a very average UNC to under 42 points. I see something like a 52-34 type of game, very similar to when PIT played Duke and GaTech. The Panthers get a premium play from once again this week.

NCAAF: Mississippi St (+5.5) @ Auburn $$$

The Bulldogs lost last week at Arkansas 31-28, but did pick up an ATS win on a premium play for me. They did not play their best game last, yet the final result was in question right until the end as they missed the game tying field goal on the final play of the game.

This week they travel to Auburn and the line is the exactly the same as last week (+5.5). The difference is this matchup favours Miss St even more so than it did last week in Arkansas. I would rate Auburn as a slightly softer opponent than Arkansas, particularly in the secondary.

Will Rogers has been stellar at QB for the Bulldogs this year and he should put up 30+ points against the Auburn defence this week who struggle defending the deep ball. This is too many points to offer in a NCAAF conference game and frankly I’m not convinced the Tigers are even the better team in this matchup.

Miss St and PITT are the two teams my NCAAF model has loved all season and I will go back to the well again this week with two more premium plays behind them.

NCAAF: Baylor (+5.5) Vs Oklahoma $$

It’s crunch time for the Sooners. They are perfect on the season thus far despite not looking particularly impressive in several of their games. This is highlighted by their #8 ranking in the NCAAF playoff poll with 5 one loss teams seeded ahead of them. Their next three games are the three toughest remaining games on their schedule, @Baylor, Vs Iowa St, @Okla St. There is also a potential conference championship game and a rematch against one of the three previously stated teams.

The Sooners will likely need to win all four of these games in order to make the playoff and the probability of them doing so against such tough competition is slim. They could be even be underdogs in two of the four matchups so finishing with 2 loses seems very reasonable.

Baylor lost a tough game against TCU last week but they are a high quality team that is likely to come out hard in this matchup and bitter about losing the prior week. I like the Bears to get the SU win in the game as the Sooners are likely to be exposed as over-rated after not playing enough quality competition earlier in the season.

NCAAF: Rutgers (+7) @ Indiana $$

The Hoosiers are the worst team in the BIG 10 with the only possible exception of North Western. I cannot understand why they should be 7 point favourites in any conference game this season. I played against them last week as 20 point dogs @Michigan and they did not disappoint.

Rutgers has predictably struggled this season, but they did pick up a nice win at Illinois and played tough against Michigan, so they may not be as bad as people think. This could be another surprise game and a SU win in Bloomington is not out of the question.

My NFL picks were a perfect 6-0 last week and am now 44-39 (53%) for the season. Make sure you are checking out my Daily Picks page frequently to get all my selections for free. It is another huge upcoming weekend of NCAAF after crushing the line again last week for 15-7 ATS (82-52, 61.2% season).

NCAAF odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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