NCAAF: Pittsburgh (-3) Vs Clemson $$$
This is a game I circled a couple of weeks ago because it features two teams moving rapidly in opposite directions.
Clemson has been the biggest disappointment thus far in the entirety of NCAAF. They have been truly average in most every aspect of the game. This would not normally have been bad, but considering from where they have fallen, it is devastating for this program. The offence is the biggest problem with DJ Uiagalelei not living up to expectations and certainly not filling the void left by the departure of Trevor Lawrence.
On the opposite side of the field, Kenny Pickett has been outstanding for the Panthers. The Pitt offence is one of the best in the country and if it had not been for an early upset loss against W Michigan, this team would still be in playoff contention. As it sits now, Pitt is favoured by many to win the ACC title game.
I could write a lot about each of these teams but suffice it to say, Pitt is the far superior team in this matchup and my power ratings say they should be favoured by as many as 17 points. The lines makers continue adjusting the lines on both of these teams by a couple of point every week, but they are still far off by a wide margin where they should be. I got this bet locked in at (-3), but it is sure to be higher by kickoff.
This is the highest rated play I have seen in the NCAAF thus far and I will make it my first premium play of the season.
NCAAF: Minnesota (-5) Vs Maryland $$$
This is another game where my power ratings differ substantially from the lines maker’s as my spreadsheet has Minnesota favoured by nearly three touchdowns (-20).
I really like this Gopher team and they have played above expectations all season with the notable exception of the upset loss against Bowling green. They dominated a very good Nebraska team last week and now they catch a break facing Maryland who are coming off two blowouts against Iowa and Ohio St.
I love betting teams that have good rushing yard differentials and a good defence. Minnesota fits the bill in both of these categories. They also benefit from the strong Big 10 this year and being perceived as the weaker little brother in the conference, which they are not.
The Terrapins are the opposite of Minnesota as they rely heavily on a pass game that produces far too many turnovers and the defence is terrible not stopping anyone. Gophers should pick up an easy win this week and the (-5) spread does not particularly concern me.
I’ll make this my second premium play of the season, both of which are set to kickoff at the same time.
NCAAF: Purdue (+3) Vs Wisconsin $$
Purdue is another team that I have rated much higher than the lines makers. They are obviously coming off a huge upset win over the previously ranked #2 Iowa and now face a Badger team that has mostly disappointed this season. I know many people will be worried about a potential letdown after a huge win, but I really feel the Boilermakers are the better team in this matchup and this point spread is not justified.
My biggest concern is the potential shutdown of the Purdue run game, but this game will likely be determined by the turnover battle. If the Boilermaker can just be even in turnovers in this matchup, I like them to get the victory. Badgers have not done a good job of protecting the ball this season and it has already cost them at least two loses. To me that deficiency outweighs their good run defence.
NCAAF: Louisville (-6.5) Vs Boston College $
This play is primarily against the Eagles as they have failed to impress this season. They are struggling with a low efficiency offence that is prone to sacks and turnovers. I see them having problems again in this matchup against a Cardinals team that can move the ball and score points.
I don’t see the Eagles taking advantage of the Cardinals biggest weakness which is their defence. Louisville should take a lead early with Boston playing catchup the rest of the game.
NCAAF: UCLA (-2) Vs Oregon $
The Ducks are still coasting off of their huge upset win week 2 in Ohio St but that game remains their only quality win of the season thus far. Both teams boast excellent rushing attacks, but the difference in tis matchup is the Oregon defence which has been deplorable. Despite the presence of top rated defender Kayvon Thibodeaux, the Duck’s defence has failed to get pressure on opposing QBs or force many turnovers.
I see the Bruins getting just enough stops in this matchup to get the win in a high scoring affair.
