Free NCAAF Picks – Afternoon Week 6, 2021


NCAAF: Wake Forrest (-5.5) Vs Syracuse $$

Wake Forrest is clearly the better team in this matchup. The question is how much better? My power ratings say by a lot, likely 14 points or more. If you take off a standard field goal for home field, this line which opened at (-7), still looks fairly cheap. The line as I write this has fallen down to (-5.5) so I am liking this even more.

These two teams do have a common opponent already this season in Florida St. The Deacons beat the Seminoles handily 35-14, while the the Orange lost a close game last week 33-30.

The Demon Deacons have a highly efficient and balanced offence and are averaging over 200 yards rushing and passing. The defence has been getting good pressure forcing turnovers and sacks. This is a great formula for winning football and the type off team I love to bet on.

Syracuse has three wins already this season, all against cupcake teams. Their loss in Florida St last week certainly didn’t impress anyone. This team is bad at best, they may even be terrible by the end of the season.

Wake Forrest should win this game easily even in the ‘sweat box’ the Orangemen call home field and I’ll make it my double play of the afternoon.

NCAAF: Iowa (-1.5) Vs Penn St $

This is easily the game of the week pitting the number 3 & 4 ranked teams in the nation. Both teams have been impressive so far this season with multiple quality wins for each. They both have their eyes squarely on the Big Ten Championship game and a NCAAF payoff birth. The winner of this game will have an inside track, but a loss is not necessarily a disaster.

The way I see this game, it is simple going to come down to turnovers and mistakes. Early in the season, I felt Iowa was a bit lucky in getting so many turnovers in their games ultimately leading to a couple easy victories. There comes a point in a season where you just have give a team credit for being ball hawks and adjust accordingly.

This is where I have changed my mind on the Iowa Hawkeyes. The simply destroyed Maryland last week with 6 INTs and another fumble. They have just been doing this all season even against good teams (including Iowa St). As a result, my power rankings for Iowa agree with the national polls and I have them at number 3. Penn St is still a quality team, but my rating have them lower down at 14th, or 5 points weaker.

This means Iowa should be the better team and are laying less than the standard 3 points at home. I see a late turnover being the difference in this game and the Hawkeyes getting a 7 point victory.

NCAAF: Illinois (+10) Vs Wisconsin $

The Badgers have been an absolute disaster so far this season. I bet on them against the Irish and the Wolverines watching them lay stanky eggs in both games (don’t forget the home loss to Penn St as well). One game I can forgive, but 2 or 3 is a pattern. This team is terrible and I vowed last week to never bet them again this year.

Illinois is about what you would normally expect. Their week 0 win against an improving Nebraska team is looking more impressive now, but they also dropped a couple close games to Maryland and Purdue. They should be good enough to hang with Wisconsin who like to give games away.

Hopefully this pick isn’t an overreaction to recent performance, but I feel this is too many points to lay on the road for an over-rated team. Having said all this, a 52-7 Badger win wouldn’t surprise me much either.

My football picks so far this season have been red hot. I am 23-16 (59.0%) in NFL and 22-15 (59.5%) in NCAAF. This week’s college football schedule is stacked so I plan on releasing three separate NCAAF reports this week.

My NCAAF Early Kickoff Games were already released earlier this week and my late night games will be released Saturday morning on my Daily Picks page. It’s a huge weekend of sporting action as I also released a best bet on Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card.

NCAAF odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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