Free NBA Picks – Dec 15th, 2021


NBA: Mavericks (+1.5) Vs Lakers $

The Lakers are a dysfunctional family held together by the glue that is LBJ. Old man LeBron is still a dominant NBA superstar, period. But I get the impression he is no longer the type of player who can consistently win games all by himself, at least not against quality teams. I consider this team overvalued which is clearly reflected in their 11-17 ATS mark so far this season. I do not expect to many opportunities to back the Lakers with this NBA season so most games it will be either a pass or fade on them.

Anthony Davis is really the key to the Lakers success this season. The frequently injured Davis is listed as probable for tonight’s game after missing the last couple with a sore knee. His presence should be a boost for this team and I feel is the reason the Lakers are listed as road favourites in Dallas tonight. But the Lakers have other problems with THC, Monk, and Howard all out tonight for an aging team suffering from a lack of depth. Russ has been Russ this season so far but I would no longer consider him a superstar. While Rondo no longer looks effective at all.

The big news for the Mavs is Luka Doncic is out for tonight’s game with an ankle injury. While that does sounds ominous, Jalen Brunson has stepped up admirably for the Mavs in Luka’s absence and the team should not see a dramatic drop-off in short term production. Another reason to be optimistic for the Mavs this season is the improved play of Porzingis over last season. He is a guy that actually seems to benefit from the absence of Luka and his ball dominance and is more effective down low rather than just jacking up threes.

These are two fairly close teams right now and I think this line is an overreaction to the absence of Doncic. I’ll take the value offered on the home dog tonight.

This is my first posted selection on the NBA this year after going 164-100 (62.1%) last season. Be sure to check out my Daily Picks page regularly for all my NBA and NFL picks this season.

NBA odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.

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Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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