Free MLB Picks – June 30th, 2022


MLB: Astros [+108] (Garcia) Vs Yankees (Severino) $

The New York Yankees are on pace to win 119 games this season. That win total would break the MLB record of 116 by the Seattle Mariners in 2001. While I do agree the Yankees are playing great ball this season, I do feel that the record is likely safe this year. But ask me again in September.

But the Houston Astros are also playing great ball at the moment. They recently swept a home and home four-game set against the first-place NY Mets. They also split a four-game set in NY against these same Yankees. In one of those games, they had six pitchers combine for a no-hitter. That series also saw the Astros lose one game in extra innings and another they gave up 4 runs in the 9th inning for a dramatic loss. They left NY that weekend feeling a bit unfortunate to only leave with a split.

I can assure you the Astros do not feel they should be home underdogs against any team in MLB right now and I would tend to agree. As good as the Yankees are playing, the square money will always favour the team with the best record in the league. I will fade this bias and take the underdogs today.

Prop Bet: Guardians Amed Rosario TBs Under [1.5] (-117) $

Rosario had four hits with two doubles last night for 6 total bases in the Guardian’s extra-inning win last night. You may be tempted to think that getting just two total bases should be easy to do in his next game as well. That of course would be poor logic. Getting two total bases is actually much harder than you might think.

Rosario has accomplished this task only 23 times this season in 66 starts, or just 35% of the time. His .396 slugging simply does not justify a line so close to even. He has a nice .293 BA, but he does not get enough extra-base hits for me to take the over in this prop bet.


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Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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