Free MLB Picks – July 4th, 2022

American League

What a great night I had on Saturday. The day started in MLB with the White Sox getting a nice road underdog win for me in SF. The Yankees then easily took care of the Indians. UFC 276 went exactly as predicted. I got two KOs from Baberena and Pereira. Finally, Vollkanovski dominated Holloway in the main event. In total, I was 5-0 for +4.66 units. It’s been a good start to July with a 6-1 record (+4.49 units).

MLB: Orioles (Kremer) Vs Rangers (Dunning) $

The Orioles got back in the win column yesterday with Tyler Wells on the mound breaking their four-game skid. Today they send up Dean Kremer who has pitched well in his last three starts not giving up any runs in those 18 innings. The Orioles have been one of the more profitable MLB teams thus far this season despite still being in the cellar of the AL East. There should still be value in betting this season as most people, myself included hate backing them after several years of ineptitude.

The Rangers had a chance to get back to .500 a few days ago but blew that opportunity. One wonders if will be the last chance to hit that mark this and if it will be a slow descent back into irrelevance for the Rangers. Dane Dunning has been inconsistent for the Rangers but just cannot seem to get a good result with his 1-6 record on the season.

I’ll fade my natural bias and take Baltimore today, although it still makes me cringe a little.

MLB: White Sox [-123] (Cueto) Vs Twins (Bundy) $

The Chicago White Sox are another team that I see value in right now. They have underperformed in the first half of the season but I expect them to start making up some ground towards the MLB playoff race. Getting a series win against the divisional leading Twins would be a good step in that direction. They start this series 4.5 games behind Minnesota and 2.5 games behind Cleveland for the last wild card position. They are currently riding a 3 game winning streak and look to continue that trend at home today.

I like the consistency offered by veteran starter Johnny Cueto who seems to give a solid 5 or 6 innings every time out. He did give 3 HRs in his last outing to the Angels, but overall he has been average to good this season. Dylan Bundy on the other hand has been average to bad this season. The pitching matchup for this definitely leaned towards Chicago today especially when you consider the bullpens as well. This is a reasonably cheap price to lay for the home team today against a divisional rival in what should be a good MLB crowd on July 4th.

Prop Bet: Arroyo TB Under (1.5) [-206] *

Christian Arroyo has covered (1.5) TBs in only 8 games thus far this MLB season. He did have a couple of singles and a couple of walks against the Cubs yesterday. Despite covering yesterday, this line is far too high for my liking even at (-206). His .366 slugging percentage does not justify the 1.5 line. He also faces the tough pitching of the Rays today who should make it difficult for him today.


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I also coach live poker players, helping them win more often.  Of course, you can follow more of my NBA writings here at Last Word on Sports or find me on Twitter to stay up to date on all my latest blogs and helpful tips to grow your bankroll. CloudBet provides MLB Odds as of writing time.

Legend: $ one unit regular bet, $$ two units best bet, * prop bets .5 units,

Jason Grad

Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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