Free MLB Picks – July 1st, 2022


I had a good day yesterday hitting on both of my picks. That included the Astros getting their home dog win over the Yankees. Let’s keep it rolling today as we start a new month.

MLB: Astros [-165] (Javier) Vs Angels (Lorenzen) $

I dare say that no team in MLB is playing better than the Astros right now. The obvious counter would be, of course, the Yankees. But Houston won the deciding game yesterday against the Yankees in a tough low scoring game. The atmosphere definitely had a playoff feel to it and the two teams now seem destined to meet in the playoffs this year.

Today the Astros welcome the Angels and I would expect them to keep on rolling. They have the pitching advantage today also with Cristian Javier on the mound. All he did in his last outing was no-hit the Yankees over 7 innings with 13Ks. That is a good day’s work. He won’t need to be nearly that good today to beat the Angels.

Michael Lorenzen has been a decent starter for the Angels, but he does tend to struggle with his control while giving up too many walks. If the Astros get an early lead, Anaheim will be hard-pressed to make a comeback against a top-quality starter and an equally strong bullpen.

MLB: Ray [+129] Kluber @ Blue Jays (Barrios) $

I am quite bullish on the Blue Jays in the second half of this MLB season, but this is not a good matchup for them today. Jose Berrios got rocked in each of his last two outings. The Brewers lit him up for 8 runs in just three innings in his last start. Jose has to be better if the Blue Jays want to remain in a wild-card position.

The Rays are still a quality team despite their current three-game losing streak. They are currently tied with the Guardians for the last wild card spot and are only 2.5 games behind the Blue Jays. Corey Kluber is on the mound tonight for the Rays. While his stuff may not be overwhelming, he has been tremendous consistent with his outings. He is the kind of guy that can reliably give you 5 or 6 innings every time out and put his team in a good position to win every night.

That is my reasoning for this pick, consistency Vs potential disaster. I’ll take my chances with the underdog in this game as this line seems too high given the risk profile of Barrios.

Prop Bet: Guardians Amed Rosario TBs Under [1.5] (-175) $

Rosario went 0-5 yesterday in the Guardians’ walk-off win against the Twins. That seemed just too easy yesterday so I figured I would just come back with the same pick today. Frankly, I am a bit surprised to even see this line again at (-1.5). Amed has just 22 games this season where he stoked 2 or more total bases, so even putting this line at 1.5 seems too high.

Today he faces Gerrit Cole who is well known for being one of the toughest pitchers in MLB. Cole does not give many extra-base hits in particular so Amed will likely need two singles today to cash this over. Considering Cole has given up just 5 hits in his last two starts over 14 innings, I don’t like his chances.


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Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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