AL Wild Card: Nathan Eovaldi (+121) Vs Yankees Cole $$

I have run all my number for this matchup and I see no reason why the Yankees should be favourites for this game.

Gerrit Cole is a stud pitcher without question, but he is streaky. The problem is he is currently trending downwards and that is not a good thing in a one game winner take all series that is the AL Wild Card. The Yankees bullpen this season has been unreliable also, in particular Chapman has not been the dominant closer we have come to expect. If this game is close in the 9th inning, I do not have confidence the closer can finish out this game.

Nathan Eovaldi has been the model of consistency all season and his numbers are nearly as good as Cole’s. I would give a slight edge in the bullpen to the Red Sox, so pretty much the game is a wash from a pitching standpoint.

The Red Sox have a 5.11 to 4.39 edge over the Yankees in run production. That is fairly significant advantage of (0.72) runs per game that I feel is being overlooked. That combined with the home field advantage in Fenway park for the AL Wild Card game, this is a fairly easy selection.

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MLB Odds and analysis provided by Odds Shark.