Bonus UFC Premium Pick – April 14th, 2022


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UFC: V Luque (-180) Vs B Muhammad $$

This is a rematch from 2016 that lasted only 79 seconds. In that UFC fight, the ‘silent assassin’ caught Muhammed with a short left hook that dropped him to the canvass then followed that up with some big bombs that turned the lights out. Compared to some of the other KOs Luque has on his resume, the shot that dropped Balel wasn’t even that good.

That immediately makes me question the chin of Muhammed who couldn’t even take a medium-strength shot from Luque without landing on his back. Luque in contrast has an iron chin. This fight is scheduled for five rounds and I just cannot see how Muhammed can survive 25 minutes without getting knocked out. Vicente throws some of the heaviest bombs in the welterweight division and is sure to land several of these in 5 rounds.

The only path to victory for Muhammed is to outwrestle his opponent and maintain his position long enough to get a decision victory. He managed to take advantage of an aging Stephen Thompson in the manner but I do not see it happening here. Luque is a BJJ brown belt who has shown off his skills on the mat, particularly with his d’arce choke. So even if the fight goes to the ground, there is no guarantee that Muhammed has an advantage.

I am not terribly impressed with Muhammed’s current win streak over Thompson and Maia. While the no-contest against Leon Edwards was likely a best-case scenario for him in a fight he looked destined to lose badly.

This line is currently at (-180) for Luque but is sure to be higher than that by fight night. If you plan on getting down on this, try to do so early.


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Jason Grad

Helping serious betters and collectors win more often and grow their portfolios. Follow me on Twitter for my daily sports picks and NFT portfolio management advice.

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