It was a close game last night in Atlanta with big swings in both directions. Ultimately Trae Young got the winning bucket and the Hawks’ season survives another night. My NBA Playoffs picks are now 6-4 this season.
NBA Playoffs: Mavericks (+6.5) @ Jazz $
The Utah Jazz are a mess and this is a terrible matchup for them. The Mavericks have completely neutralized Rudy Gobert and at worst exposed the big man as a guy that cannot defend the perimeter. What do the Mavericks do the best? They shoot from the perimeter. If the Jazz have any hope of winning this series, they simply need to bench Gobert. The team and coaching staff are too stubborn to make such a drastic move so I expect more of the same. Don’t forget the fact the Jazz are perennial playoff chokers and make the same mistakes every year.
Luka Doncic is listed as questionable for this matchup, but I don’t think it will matter either way. Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson are proving their worth as quality guards even without the captain on the court. Their bench is coming up big with clutch 3-pointers as well. The key stat in this matchup is the 3-point shots from the Mavericks. In the last two games, they had 40+ attempts and are hitting over 40%. This 40/40 number is a recipe for giving up 126 points in the NBA playoffs and another first-round exit for the Jazz.
I don’t understand why this line is +6.5. If Luka does actually play, it is just a bonus.
Sign up to my Newsletter to get all my daily Best Bets in the NBA playoffs, MLB & UFC delivered directly to your inbox by 1 pm EST daily for just $25 per month with new subscribers getting their first two weeks free. Unsubscribed readers can still enjoy my free picks released regularly during the season or the Best Bets released one hour before game time.
I also coach live poker players, helping them win more often. Of course, you can follow more of my NBA writings right here at Last Word on Sports or find me on Twitter to stay up to date on all my latest blogs and helpful tips to grow your bankroll.
Legend $ – ‘one star’ regular bet $$ – ‘two star’ best bet $$$ – ‘three star’ premium bet