NCAAF: Purdue (+3/ +130 ML) Vs Michigan St $$$
The Spartans are on a tremendous roll winning eight straight games to start the season and are currently ranked #3 in the NCAAF playoff ranking. Let’s all give the Michigan St credit and praise for what they have accomplished so far this season.
Now having said that… the Spartans are not the third best team in the Big 10 East. In fact I can easily list 20 or more teams in NCAAF better than them including their opponents this week, Purdue. Despite their high ranking, their chances of actually making the playoff realistically close to zero. In order to do so, they would need to run the table and win not only this week, but also beat Ohio St, Penn St and likely Iowa in the Conference final. They could be as much as three touchdown underdogs in the Ohio St game alone.
Getting back to this week, I expect the Spartans to be in a lot of trouble travelling to West Lafayette. This not a gimme game and I expect them to face an equally difficult challenge that they narrowly escaped last week against Michigan. This line is badly off as the Boilermakers should be the clear favourites in this matchup.
The Spartans cannot go the entire season getting the majority of the turnovers and bounces while constantly finding big plays down the field. That is not how football works, eventually everything regresses back to expectation. I’m taking the better team, at home, with the free points for a premium four unit play with one unit going towards the ML.
NCAAF: Mississippi St (+4.5) @ Arkansas $$$
The Bulldogs are another team I have been riding for several weeks and I see no reason to stop. My model loves this team based largely on the recent defensive performances and particularly their ability to stop the run. Will Rogers at QB is having a tremendous season completing over 75% of his passes. That is a recipe that produces a high percentage of wins even against good teams.
The Razorbacks are exactly that, a good team. I actually backed Arkansas a couple times earlier in the season already. But I think they are just outmatched this week and will not be able to run the ball effectively which has been their bread and butter all season. The grind of playing a SEC West can be brutal and I fear it will eventually catch up to the Razorbacks. Having to play top rated teams nearly every single week can wear down a team both physically and mentally. I feel the Bulldogs are finding their groove while the Razorbacks are wearing down.
This is another game that I think the wrong team is favoured and I like the Bulldogs to get the SU win. I will make it another premium play and again with a full unit on the money line at +165.
NCAAF: Oklahoma St (-3.5) @ W Virginia $$
The Oklahoma St is the best team in the Big 12. I know the Sooners are undefeated and rated #8, but who really looks at the rankings when placing actually money on games? Not me. They did lose a really tough game against an underrated Iowa St (see below), but I stand by my claim. There should be no surprises when on the last week of the season I write about how I will be betting on the Cowboys to beat their cross state rivals.
Oklahoma St has already been through the meat of their schedule leading up to their finale at home against the Sooners. I expect them to roll through three easier upcoming games on their schedule including this side mission to West Virginia.
The Mountaineers have two nice victories in a row leading into this game, but they should take a small step back against after the big upset they pulled last week.
NCAAF: Louisville (+4) Vs Clemson $$
Clemson got their first cover of the season last week against the Seminoles with a absolute gift of fumble near the end zone on the last play of the game. If that is the only way the Tigers can cover games, I will be happy to bet against the rest of the season.
It is difficult to understate just how bad the Clemson offence has been this season and really should be considered one of the worst in the conference ahead perhaps of only BC. Every week the linemakers adjust down on this team and every week it is just isn’t enough. I am not convinced Clemson is even the better team in this matchup, so I am very happy to take home points with the Cardinals.
NCAAF: Iowa St (-6.5) Vs Texas $$
I am going to go to the well on last time on the Cyclones before giving up on them for good. My model absolutely loves this team, yet they have consistently disappointed their backers and mysteriously find themselves with three loses and out of conference title contention.
Texas however, have also been a disappointment and have blown second half leads in each of their last three games. I fear the will of this team is now broken and they may not be able to start strong going forward and actually find themselves being blown out. They have possible the best RB in the nation in Robinson, yet seem unable to take advantage of his dominance.
The pressure is now off for Iowa St and their entire season may come down to upsetting undefeated Oklahoma in two weeks time. Meanwhile, I like them in a blowout in this matchup.
NCAAF: Michigan (-20) Vs Indiana $$
The Wolverines lost a heartbreaker last week in East Lansing. I expect them to rebound with a blow out in win at home against the Hoosiers. Indiana is easily the worst team in the Big 10 and they will face punishment in Ann Arbour this week. This is a late primetime game but I do not expect many fans will be tuned in to watch. The line would need to be north of 28 points in order for me to lay off this game.