NCAAF: Iowa St (-4.5) Vs Iowa $
This is the biggest game of the year for the Cyclones. They could lose every other game of the year, but if they win the Cy-Hawk trophy, the season could be considered a success (not really but you get the point). They struggled a bit last week against N-Iowa, but really it was a look ahead game for them and I feel they really played down to N_Iowa to conceal their strategy for this game.
Hawkeyes got a highly emotional win over Indiana. It was game where they played well, but really they were beneficiaries of several good bounces that bloated the final score in their favour. The pick-6 is the most influential play in all of football and the Hawkeyes managed two such plays last week. I doubt they will be as fortunate this week.
This is also a bad matchup defensively for the Hawkeyes as they will need to change up their 4-2-5 spread prevent defence against this Cyclone offence who feature a bigger TE formation. It will be an adjustment and if they do fall behind early, I question if they have fire power to come from behind.
This to me looks like a trap game where many people will overreact to last week’s performances and take the Hawkeyes. The home field advantage will also be very significant here and the Cyclones are rightly favoured in this matchup.
NCAAF: Ohio St (-14.5) Vs Oregon $
Ohio St and CJ Stroud did not play well against Minnesota last week, and they still covered the 13.5 point spread. They even trailed in the third quarter but rallied to finish in dominant style. I expect Stroud to continue to improve as the season progresses. In fact, I expect the entire Buckeye team to play even better as the expect several key starters to return this week.
DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, the Duck’s best player and a possible #1 overall NFL pick, is listed as questionable for the game. If he cannot go, or even if he is not 100%, the Buckeyes could go off for 49 points or more. Ohio St has of the most elite speed in NCAAF at the skill positions and I question if Oregon will be able to keep up.
This is an early game for an Oregon team that is used to playing west coast night games. I also question the strength of the entire Pac 12 conference. With the exception of UCLA and perhaps USC, this conference looks the softest of all the NCAAF major conferences. I will be fading these Pac 12 teams whenever I can against tougher conferences (see below).
NCAAF: Michigan (-6.5) Vs Washington $
Washington Huskies laid a huge egg last week at home against Montana losing 13-7. QB Dylan Morris was absolutely terrible throwing 27-46 for just 226 yards and a shocking 3 interceptions. There have already been questions raised as to whether he should be replaced as the starting QB.
As bad as the QB play was, it wasn’t the most shocking thing about this performance. The Huskies attempted 27 rushes for just 65 years or just 2.4 yards per. Those statistics lead me to just one conclusion, this Huskies offensive line is not very good. They were completely dominated by the pressure of the Montana pass rush.
Now in week 2 the Huskies travel to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines. If the Huskies got dominated by a Big Sky team, how do you think they are going to do on the road against a tough Big 10 team? Let’s not forget that six PAC 12 teams lost out of conference games in week 1 of this season which does not bode well for the conference against tougher NCAAF conferences.
Wolverines pulled off a nice 47-14 victory against WMich last week. They looked good in their first game, but this pick is really about their opponent. The road map to victory has been laid out for them already, heavy pressure and run blitzes should get home in this matchup holding the Huskies to field goals. That should be good enough to get a double digit victory in this matchup.
I will be releasing my NCAAF picks every Thursday this season. If there are any late selections or updates, you can expect them Friday nights or Saturday mornings so make sure you check regularly to my Daily Picks page to get my daily selections every day for free.
NCAAF Lines provided by Odds Shark.